Barring a physical and a John Hancock on the contract (due this Friday at 5pm), Masahiro Tanaka is set to become the newest member of the 2014 Yankees per ESPN New York. He's also set to take $155 million of the Steinbrenners' money, and his now-former team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan's Pacific League, will snag another $20 million in posting fees.
That adds up to $175 million over seven years for a 25-year-old who on the one hand has a considerable amount of upside and an allegedly untouchable splitter, but on the other has no major-league experience and a hefty 1315-innings worth of mileage on his right arm, an average of 187+ innings over seven seasons since his NPB debut at age 18.
Immediately, I have two separate and opposing reactions. The fan part of me exclaims jubilantly, 'Yeah! Let that little white marble hop along that roulette wheel, baby! Spend, spend, spend it all, Hal/Hank!' The self-proclaimed baseball analyst part of me states calmly, 'That's too much money for a guy whose major league value is completely unknown and whose innings history dictates that he will likely burn out before age 30.'
Let's reconcile, shall we?
First, put yourself in the shoes of a fan at Yankee Stadium. You just spent $40-$50 on a StubHub ticket to sit in the Mt. Olympia section of the upper deck. You're about to spend $5.75 on a Nathan's hot dog and $9.75 on a plastic bottle of Bud Light (in order to wash down the regret for spending all that money on the seat). You navigate the concourse, traverse the concrete heights of the stadium, and settle in to your chair, only to look up and see that today's starting pitcher is...David Phelps?
With all due respect to young Mr. Phelps (I personally believe the guy is very underrated in terms of value), if you, the fleeced fan, knew you might have had a chance to see Tanaka that day, you'd feel short-changed. Same goes if the Yankees had acquired Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez instead. Hell, even another year of Sabathia and Kuroda has lost a lot of its viewing luster.
If the team had the chance to go after the most intriguing and electrifying pitching prospect available and they didn't do it because of the oh-so-dreadful luxury tax, wouldn't you feel disappointed? Ripped off? Mad enough to slam your $9.75 non-breakable bottle of beer on the steps of section 227? (Ok, maybe not that angry...that's just wasteful).
Who cares if this signing launches the team payroll over the $189K threshold? Honestly, other than the owners, who really gives a damn about a luxury tax? I certainly don't, especially when I'm dropping $150+ between gas, a ticket, food, merchandise, etc. for a day at the ball park. At the very least, the franchise owes the fans the equivalent (if not more) of what each of is investing at the economic level. For my dollar, I want to see the most exciting and talented product that the team can afford. The Tanaka deal and the other moves they made this offseason (Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann) satisfies this desire and thrills the fan in me to no end, as it should any fan of the club.
However, I am not only a fan. I am a scrupulous and objective analyst of the sport (he says with a scrupulous, objective, self-satisfying demeanor). It would be remiss of me to eschew the analytic responsibilities that emanate there from.
With that in mind, I will say that in the long term, this is a bad move for the Yankees.
Anytime you talk about a Japanese pitcher, you cannot ignore the wear-and-tear issues. Tanaka, like most Japanese pitchers, has thrown an sizable quantity of innings. Over his seven year career, he's averaged about 188 innings a year and just shy of 7.6 IP per start (remember, Nippon Professional Baseball seasons are about 140 games long). He's also hurled 53 complete games, or put differently, a full nine innings of work every 3.2 times he's taken the ball.
If we weigh these starting pitchers who've come over from the NPB since 2007, we find that Tanaka lands right in the middle heap:
Kei Igawa (6 full seasons) - averaged ~198 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 4.9 starts
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~190 IP; 7.4 IP per start; CG every 2.6 starts
Masahiro Tanaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~188 IP; 7.6 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts
Yu Darvish (7 full seasons) - averaged ~181 IP; 7.7 IP per start; CG every 3.0
Hisashi Iwakuma (8 full seasons) - averaged ~171 IP; 6.5 IP per start; CG every 4.7 starts
Hiroki Kuroda (10 full seasons) - averaged ~166 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts
[NOTE: "Full season" defined as one in which player started at least 14 games]
From these stats, it's hard to determine with any surety how Tanaka's IP history will affect his health and success in the majors. Kuroda and Iwakuma (studs thus far) came over late in their careers with not as much on the odometer as Igawa and Dice K (duds), so the fact that Masahiro shades more towards the latter pair's numbers is a concern. That said, he does have age on his side.
And yet Darvish--the player who Tanaka will invariably be measured against time and again--also had considerable wear on his arm when he entered the league. To date, Yu has been an exquisite AL starter, but it is still too soon to tell if that very high 7.7-IP per-start figure will catch up to him. Then again, maybe Darvish was blessed with a freak arm/body (one clings to a similar hope for Tanaka, though he is outsized by Darvish by 3 inches and 20 pounds).
However, a closer look at Tanaka's seasons in the NPB reveal a couple of troublesome trends. In his final three seasons from 2011-2013, Tanaka threw over 200 innings twice, averaging about 204 IP in that span. Compare that to an average of just under 176 IP over his first four seasons and it's clear the stress on his body has increased dramatically in recent years.
Additionally, in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19, Tanaka cranked out 359 innings of work (compare that to just 240 innings of work by Darvish at age 18 and 19). The last Japanese pitcher to total that high an NPB-innings count as a teenager and then ship out to America was Daisuke Matsuzaka, who racked up 347.2 IP in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19 (yikes). That's not even mentioning the copious amounts of pitches he threw before beginning his professional career, including 742 pitches in five games in the Koshien tournament (sourced from Tom Verducci's article on SI.com).
Another point of concern: baseballs. Yes, I'm talking the literal object. Jay Jaffe of SI.com wrote a very interesting article on juiced Japanese baseballs, informing us that in 2011, the NPB had admittedly altered the weight and size of its baseballs from a slightly smaller, lighter version than that of its MLB counterpart. The post-2011 alteration was meant to match the measurements of balls used in the states.
This means that for the first four seasons of his career, Tanaka was throwing that lighter, smaller model before switching to the heavier, larger Big League version in his final three seasons. If you'll recall, Tanaka's workload increased severely in the 2011-2013 campaigns. So not only was he throwing a heavier ball, he was throwing it with uncharted frequency.
I don't care how fractional the actual differences in mass and volume are between the pre-2011 and post-2011 NPB baseballs; when you are tossing it that many times repeatedly, your arm is being taxed. In the long run, I fear that this, like the IP-history, is bound to catch up with Masahiro. On the bright side, maybe the fact that Tanaka was forced to throw the ball with MLB specs will help smooth his initial transition.
Finally, there's the issue of his stuff. You may have heard by now about his untouchable, Koji-Uehara-like splitter. No doubt, it's the pitch that allowed Tanaka to post an unheard of 24-0 record last year in the midst of reeling off a 30-game unbeaten streak (came to an end in Game 6 of the 2013 Japan Series).
While it's great that he has a put-away pitch and a double-play ball to rely on, you need a dynamic fastball to have success in the modern game; either high-octane velocity or late movement. From various scouting reports accessible by a quick internet search, one consistent criticism of Tanaka's arsenal reveals itself: his fastball is flat. You can tell from this YouTube video of highlights (albeit a cursory review) that there is merit to that analysis.
Darvish's fastball cuts (and he can hit 98 on the jug). Kuroda tops out at 90, but he has a devastating two-seam draw on his heater. Really for any pitcher Japanese or otherwise, the clear mark of a successful starting pitcher is a fastball that can be thrown to all quadrants of the strike zone and one that has late movement to dodge the fat part of the bat. The flat fastball issue is equally as unnerving to me as Tanaka's possibly overused right arm.
For all that needling and kvetching, the bottom line remains this: the New York Yankees are obligated by their very nature as the richest franchise in the sport to go after the best players available. Are they grossly overpaying for Tanaka, a guy who probably becomes a quality No. 2 starter in an ideal situation? Yes, but realistically, don't they grossly overpay for everyone? Doesn't every team nowadays (I'm looking at you Seattle)?
Is this contract bound to be another financial burden that the Yankees regret in five years, assuming Masahiro chooses not to opt out? For the reasons given above, I see that as a very likely scenario. But this is the Yankees, and in baseball language 'Yankees' translates to 'win now.' Besides, I'm a fan, and more importantly, I'm a patron of this business. If I'm plunking down a sizable fraction of my income to be entertained by this team, Hank and Hal better be willing to do the same to entertain me.
Though it's probably a moot point now. I'm sure I just cursed my live viewing experience into a season of David Phelps starts.
SIDEBAR
The 2014 Yankees Rotation: As Alluring As It Is Scary
Talk about a ceiling renovation.
In the context of the short term, the addition of Tanaka has substantially elevated the potential for dominance for the 2014 rotation. With Michael Pineda due back (hopefully) from elbow surgery and Ivan Nova poised to blossom into a top-end-of-the-rotation starter, adding Tanaka to the mix has made the Yankees fleet of arms appear as youthful and potent as ever. You could do much worse than an aging but still workmanlike CC Sabathia and an already-aged yet absurdly effective Hiroki Kuroda as your back end (that Hiroki is like a fine Pinot Grigio, I tell ya).
There is always the potential that the ceiling could collapse on your head though. Nova and CC are very much question marks. Kuroda is now 40 and the league has had another year to decode the mystery of his repertoire. It is unknown at this point if and when Michael Pineda will be game ready.
The worst possible outcome is that Tanaka flops in his rookie season, Pineda gets hurt again or forgets how to pitch after the long lay off, CC and his doughy physique continue to decline into late-30-dom, Nova regresses (prompting Girardi to send him down then up then back down again), and Father Time finally takes one of Hiroki's flat two-seamers and crushes it over the short porch in right field.
Even the persistent pessimist in me can't see all five of these scenarios playing out. By the law of averages, the Yankees are going to get at least 75 wins from this group of five, should the gods of healthy athletes allow. Personally, I'm willing to go slightly higher to 80.
Bold? Perhaps. Chalk it up to the fact that I am genuinely stoked for these guys to get out on the bump this year. And the best part? No Phil Hughes! Had to be said (sorry Phil).
That adds up to $175 million over seven years for a 25-year-old who on the one hand has a considerable amount of upside and an allegedly untouchable splitter, but on the other has no major-league experience and a hefty 1315-innings worth of mileage on his right arm, an average of 187+ innings over seven seasons since his NPB debut at age 18.
Immediately, I have two separate and opposing reactions. The fan part of me exclaims jubilantly, 'Yeah! Let that little white marble hop along that roulette wheel, baby! Spend, spend, spend it all, Hal/Hank!' The self-proclaimed baseball analyst part of me states calmly, 'That's too much money for a guy whose major league value is completely unknown and whose innings history dictates that he will likely burn out before age 30.'
Let's reconcile, shall we?
First, put yourself in the shoes of a fan at Yankee Stadium. You just spent $40-$50 on a StubHub ticket to sit in the Mt. Olympia section of the upper deck. You're about to spend $5.75 on a Nathan's hot dog and $9.75 on a plastic bottle of Bud Light (in order to wash down the regret for spending all that money on the seat). You navigate the concourse, traverse the concrete heights of the stadium, and settle in to your chair, only to look up and see that today's starting pitcher is...David Phelps?
With all due respect to young Mr. Phelps (I personally believe the guy is very underrated in terms of value), if you, the fleeced fan, knew you might have had a chance to see Tanaka that day, you'd feel short-changed. Same goes if the Yankees had acquired Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez instead. Hell, even another year of Sabathia and Kuroda has lost a lot of its viewing luster.
 |
| The Yankees are sure to plant some extra butts in the seats this season with the acquisition of star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, mine included. (Photo courtesy Getty Images) |
Who cares if this signing launches the team payroll over the $189K threshold? Honestly, other than the owners, who really gives a damn about a luxury tax? I certainly don't, especially when I'm dropping $150+ between gas, a ticket, food, merchandise, etc. for a day at the ball park. At the very least, the franchise owes the fans the equivalent (if not more) of what each of is investing at the economic level. For my dollar, I want to see the most exciting and talented product that the team can afford. The Tanaka deal and the other moves they made this offseason (Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann) satisfies this desire and thrills the fan in me to no end, as it should any fan of the club.
However, I am not only a fan. I am a scrupulous and objective analyst of the sport (he says with a scrupulous, objective, self-satisfying demeanor). It would be remiss of me to eschew the analytic responsibilities that emanate there from.
With that in mind, I will say that in the long term, this is a bad move for the Yankees.
Anytime you talk about a Japanese pitcher, you cannot ignore the wear-and-tear issues. Tanaka, like most Japanese pitchers, has thrown an sizable quantity of innings. Over his seven year career, he's averaged about 188 innings a year and just shy of 7.6 IP per start (remember, Nippon Professional Baseball seasons are about 140 games long). He's also hurled 53 complete games, or put differently, a full nine innings of work every 3.2 times he's taken the ball.
If we weigh these starting pitchers who've come over from the NPB since 2007, we find that Tanaka lands right in the middle heap:
Kei Igawa (6 full seasons) - averaged ~198 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 4.9 starts
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~190 IP; 7.4 IP per start; CG every 2.6 starts
Masahiro Tanaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~188 IP; 7.6 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts
Yu Darvish (7 full seasons) - averaged ~181 IP; 7.7 IP per start; CG every 3.0
Hisashi Iwakuma (8 full seasons) - averaged ~171 IP; 6.5 IP per start; CG every 4.7 starts
Hiroki Kuroda (10 full seasons) - averaged ~166 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts
[NOTE: "Full season" defined as one in which player started at least 14 games]
From these stats, it's hard to determine with any surety how Tanaka's IP history will affect his health and success in the majors. Kuroda and Iwakuma (studs thus far) came over late in their careers with not as much on the odometer as Igawa and Dice K (duds), so the fact that Masahiro shades more towards the latter pair's numbers is a concern. That said, he does have age on his side.
And yet Darvish--the player who Tanaka will invariably be measured against time and again--also had considerable wear on his arm when he entered the league. To date, Yu has been an exquisite AL starter, but it is still too soon to tell if that very high 7.7-IP per-start figure will catch up to him. Then again, maybe Darvish was blessed with a freak arm/body (one clings to a similar hope for Tanaka, though he is outsized by Darvish by 3 inches and 20 pounds).
 |
| Without questions, Yu Darvish will be the gauge by which Tanaka's performance is measured, however unfairly (Photo courtesy AP) |
Additionally, in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19, Tanaka cranked out 359 innings of work (compare that to just 240 innings of work by Darvish at age 18 and 19). The last Japanese pitcher to total that high an NPB-innings count as a teenager and then ship out to America was Daisuke Matsuzaka, who racked up 347.2 IP in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19 (yikes). That's not even mentioning the copious amounts of pitches he threw before beginning his professional career, including 742 pitches in five games in the Koshien tournament (sourced from Tom Verducci's article on SI.com).
Another point of concern: baseballs. Yes, I'm talking the literal object. Jay Jaffe of SI.com wrote a very interesting article on juiced Japanese baseballs, informing us that in 2011, the NPB had admittedly altered the weight and size of its baseballs from a slightly smaller, lighter version than that of its MLB counterpart. The post-2011 alteration was meant to match the measurements of balls used in the states.
This means that for the first four seasons of his career, Tanaka was throwing that lighter, smaller model before switching to the heavier, larger Big League version in his final three seasons. If you'll recall, Tanaka's workload increased severely in the 2011-2013 campaigns. So not only was he throwing a heavier ball, he was throwing it with uncharted frequency.
I don't care how fractional the actual differences in mass and volume are between the pre-2011 and post-2011 NPB baseballs; when you are tossing it that many times repeatedly, your arm is being taxed. In the long run, I fear that this, like the IP-history, is bound to catch up with Masahiro. On the bright side, maybe the fact that Tanaka was forced to throw the ball with MLB specs will help smooth his initial transition.
Finally, there's the issue of his stuff. You may have heard by now about his untouchable, Koji-Uehara-like splitter. No doubt, it's the pitch that allowed Tanaka to post an unheard of 24-0 record last year in the midst of reeling off a 30-game unbeaten streak (came to an end in Game 6 of the 2013 Japan Series).
While it's great that he has a put-away pitch and a double-play ball to rely on, you need a dynamic fastball to have success in the modern game; either high-octane velocity or late movement. From various scouting reports accessible by a quick internet search, one consistent criticism of Tanaka's arsenal reveals itself: his fastball is flat. You can tell from this YouTube video of highlights (albeit a cursory review) that there is merit to that analysis.
Darvish's fastball cuts (and he can hit 98 on the jug). Kuroda tops out at 90, but he has a devastating two-seam draw on his heater. Really for any pitcher Japanese or otherwise, the clear mark of a successful starting pitcher is a fastball that can be thrown to all quadrants of the strike zone and one that has late movement to dodge the fat part of the bat. The flat fastball issue is equally as unnerving to me as Tanaka's possibly overused right arm.
For all that needling and kvetching, the bottom line remains this: the New York Yankees are obligated by their very nature as the richest franchise in the sport to go after the best players available. Are they grossly overpaying for Tanaka, a guy who probably becomes a quality No. 2 starter in an ideal situation? Yes, but realistically, don't they grossly overpay for everyone? Doesn't every team nowadays (I'm looking at you Seattle)?
Is this contract bound to be another financial burden that the Yankees regret in five years, assuming Masahiro chooses not to opt out? For the reasons given above, I see that as a very likely scenario. But this is the Yankees, and in baseball language 'Yankees' translates to 'win now.' Besides, I'm a fan, and more importantly, I'm a patron of this business. If I'm plunking down a sizable fraction of my income to be entertained by this team, Hank and Hal better be willing to do the same to entertain me.
Though it's probably a moot point now. I'm sure I just cursed my live viewing experience into a season of David Phelps starts.
SIDEBAR
The 2014 Yankees Rotation: As Alluring As It Is Scary
 |
| Coming off a remarkable, Cy Young worthy performance in 2013, Hiroki Kuroda may find himself at the back end of the Yankees rotation by the end of the 2014 season (Photo courtesy Mike Stobe/Getty Images) |
Talk about a ceiling renovation.
In the context of the short term, the addition of Tanaka has substantially elevated the potential for dominance for the 2014 rotation. With Michael Pineda due back (hopefully) from elbow surgery and Ivan Nova poised to blossom into a top-end-of-the-rotation starter, adding Tanaka to the mix has made the Yankees fleet of arms appear as youthful and potent as ever. You could do much worse than an aging but still workmanlike CC Sabathia and an already-aged yet absurdly effective Hiroki Kuroda as your back end (that Hiroki is like a fine Pinot Grigio, I tell ya).
There is always the potential that the ceiling could collapse on your head though. Nova and CC are very much question marks. Kuroda is now 40 and the league has had another year to decode the mystery of his repertoire. It is unknown at this point if and when Michael Pineda will be game ready.
The worst possible outcome is that Tanaka flops in his rookie season, Pineda gets hurt again or forgets how to pitch after the long lay off, CC and his doughy physique continue to decline into late-30-dom, Nova regresses (prompting Girardi to send him down then up then back down again), and Father Time finally takes one of Hiroki's flat two-seamers and crushes it over the short porch in right field.
Even the persistent pessimist in me can't see all five of these scenarios playing out. By the law of averages, the Yankees are going to get at least 75 wins from this group of five, should the gods of healthy athletes allow. Personally, I'm willing to go slightly higher to 80.
Bold? Perhaps. Chalk it up to the fact that I am genuinely stoked for these guys to get out on the bump this year. And the best part? No Phil Hughes! Had to be said (sorry Phil).
1 comment:
So great to find a new entry on the blog!! Always enjoy reading about your insight and opinions; you have a great way with the written word.
As a current Yankees season ticket holder (this will be my 2nd season) I can say right off the bat (pun intended??) that I already feel my tickets have increased in value with all of the signings from this off-season. With my Saturday season ticket plan last year, I had the AwPhil misfortune, along with others who had the same plan, to see Phil Hughes start in SEVEN of my 16 game plan. With a 5 man rotation and 7 days in a week that is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE to happen but it did!!! Or do I have to remind you Bullfrog of the time we watched our former October MVP Raul Ibanez hit a grand slam off Hughes in a 7 run first inning? (Here it is anyway: http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_05_15_seamlb_nyamlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=nyy&c_id=nyy )
When you include either a round-trip train ticket or entry into a parking garage (a train ride will cost you around $20 while parking garages as we know have gone up to $30 or more!), you're already looking at a $60-70 day before entering the stadium!! And for an almost guaranteed loss by Aw-Phil Hughes? I can't believe I renewed my plan based on all of that alone...Actually the guy on the phone promised me that Hughes would not be back and that was all that needed to be said ;)
The powers that be knew they had to field a championship-caliber team to get butts in seats this year. TV Ratings went down last year due to injuries to starting players and not even The Saga Known as ARod could get people to tune in (Am I the only one that still likes him at this point??)
I would be more interested in a pitch count on Tanaka than his innings pitched. Tanaka will not be expected to pitch complete games ever really on this new stage and even in Japan, they used him as a work-horse. This guy's work-ethics in Japan were completely different based on what will happen here. Last season, after pitching a complete game in the playoffs, Tanaka shows up the following day and is preparing in the bullpen as if he's going to go out there and do it all again! The guy is either out of his mind or a freak of nature. Or both.
I remember Dice-K discussing back in the day how the MLB ball felt much more different to him than what he was used to. He did decently in his rookie season but it was his second full season (2008) where he found a LOT of success before succumbing to injuries for the rest of his MLB career thus far (Unsure of what his injuries have been based off of...wear and tear? unable to grow a Red Sox beard? seeing into the future and knowing he would become a Met?)
I hate the opt-out clause in the contract (and in all contracts, looking at you CC) but if Tanaka can be a serviceable No 2/3 guy for the next 4 years than I am okay with that and I am sure fans would be too. He should be able to average 15 wins a year for us. Expectations already seem pretty high for this guy but I can't imagine him trotting out there on Opening Day or being some miraculous 1/1A starter for us. Who knows. Maybe the guy goes 24-0 in his first season.
The rotation is a huge improvement from last year. With CC, Kuroda, Nova, Tanaka and PHELPS (Yes he will be our No 5 guy to start the season and will be efficient enough to not be taken out in the 1st inning and will have our improved lineup backing him up), on paper alone it looks better than anything containing the word Hughes in it. Here's hoping Pineda comes back to be a middle of rotation starter (once again, we are not looking for him to suddenly become a 1/1a guy based on his one(!!) full season in the Majors)
Hoping to see a Lineup Column in the near future as we get closer to Opening Day!! And definitely looking forward to catching a game with you!!
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