The Tanaka Gamble and The 2014 Yankees Rotation

Barring a physical and a John Hancock on the contract (due this Friday at 5pm), Masahiro Tanaka is set to become the newest member of the 2014 Yankees per ESPN New York. He's also set to take $155 million of the Steinbrenners' money, and his now-former team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan's Pacific League, will snag another $20 million in posting fees.

That adds up to $175 million over seven years for a 25-year-old who on the one hand has a considerable amount of upside and an allegedly untouchable splitter, but on the other has no major-league experience and a hefty 1315-innings worth of mileage on his right arm, an average of 187+ innings over seven seasons since his NPB debut at age 18.

Immediately, I have two separate and opposing reactions. The fan part of me exclaims jubilantly, 'Yeah! Let that little white marble hop along that roulette wheel, baby! Spend, spend, spend it all, Hal/Hank!' The self-proclaimed baseball analyst part of me states calmly, 'That's too much money for a guy whose major league value is completely unknown and whose innings history dictates that he will likely burn out before age 30.'

Let's reconcile, shall we?

First, put yourself in the shoes of a fan at Yankee Stadium. You just spent $40-$50 on a StubHub ticket to sit in the Mt. Olympia section of the upper deck. You're about to spend $5.75 on a Nathan's hot dog and $9.75 on a plastic bottle of Bud Light (in order to wash down the regret for spending all that money on the seat). You navigate the concourse, traverse the concrete heights of the stadium, and settle in to your chair, only to look up and see that today's starting pitcher is...David Phelps?

With all due respect to young Mr. Phelps (I personally believe the guy is very underrated in terms of value), if you, the fleeced fan, knew you might have had a chance to see Tanaka that day, you'd feel short-changed. Same goes if the Yankees had acquired Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez instead. Hell, even another year of Sabathia and Kuroda has lost a lot of its viewing luster.

The Yankees are sure to plant some extra butts in
the seats this season with the acquisition of
star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, mine included.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

If the team had the chance to go after the most intriguing and electrifying pitching prospect available and they didn't do it because of the oh-so-dreadful luxury tax, wouldn't you feel disappointed? Ripped off? Mad enough to slam your $9.75 non-breakable bottle of beer on the steps of section 227? (Ok, maybe not that angry...that's just wasteful).

Who cares if this signing launches the team payroll over the $189K threshold? Honestly, other than the owners, who really gives a damn about a luxury tax? I certainly don't, especially when I'm dropping $150+ between gas, a ticket, food, merchandise, etc. for a day at the ball park. At the very least, the franchise owes the fans the equivalent (if not more) of what each of is investing at the economic level. For my dollar, I want to see the most exciting and talented product that the team can afford. The Tanaka deal and the other moves they made this offseason (Ellsbury, Beltran, McCann) satisfies this desire and thrills the fan in me to no end, as it should any fan of the club.

However, I am not only a fan. I am a scrupulous and objective analyst of the sport (he says with a scrupulous, objective, self-satisfying demeanor). It would be remiss of me to eschew the analytic responsibilities that emanate there from.

With that in mind, I will say that in the long term, this is a bad move for the Yankees.

Anytime you talk about a Japanese pitcher, you cannot ignore the wear-and-tear issues. Tanaka, like most Japanese pitchers, has thrown an sizable quantity of innings. Over his seven year career, he's averaged about 188 innings a year and just shy of 7.6 IP per start (remember, Nippon Professional Baseball seasons are about 140 games long). He's also hurled 53 complete games, or put differently, a full nine innings of work every 3.2 times he's taken the ball.

If we weigh these starting pitchers who've come over from the NPB since 2007, we find that Tanaka lands right in the middle heap:

Kei Igawa (6 full seasons) - averaged ~198 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 4.9 starts
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~190 IP; 7.4 IP per start; CG every 2.6 starts
Masahiro Tanaka (7 full seasons) - averaged ~188 IP; 7.6 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts
Yu Darvish (7 full seasons) - averaged ~181 IP; 7.7 IP per start; CG every 3.0
Hisashi Iwakuma (8 full seasons) - averaged ~171 IP; 6.5 IP per start; CG every 4.7 starts
Hiroki Kuroda (10 full seasons) - averaged ~166 IP; 7.0 IP per start; CG every 3.2 starts

[NOTE: "Full season" defined as one in which player started at least 14 games]

From these stats, it's hard to determine with any surety how Tanaka's IP history will affect his health and success in the majors. Kuroda and Iwakuma (studs thus far) came over late in their careers with not as much on the odometer as Igawa and Dice K (duds), so the fact that Masahiro shades more towards the latter pair's numbers is a concern. That said, he does have age on his side.

And yet Darvish--the player who Tanaka will invariably be measured against time and again--also had considerable wear on his arm when he entered the league. To date, Yu has been an exquisite AL starter, but it is still too soon to tell if that very high 7.7-IP per-start figure will catch up to him. Then again, maybe Darvish was blessed with a freak arm/body (one clings to a similar hope for Tanaka, though he is outsized by Darvish by 3 inches and 20 pounds).

Without questions, Yu Darvish will be the gauge by which
Tanaka's performance is measured, however unfairly
(Photo courtesy AP)

However, a closer look at Tanaka's seasons in the NPB reveal a couple of troublesome trends. In his final three seasons from 2011-2013, Tanaka threw over 200 innings twice, averaging about 204 IP in that span. Compare that to an average of just under 176 IP over his first four seasons and it's clear the stress on his body has increased dramatically in recent years.

Additionally, in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19, Tanaka cranked out 359 innings of work (compare that to just 240 innings of work by Darvish at age 18 and 19). The last Japanese pitcher to total that high an NPB-innings count as a teenager and then ship out to America was Daisuke Matsuzaka, who racked up 347.2 IP in his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19 (yikes). That's not even mentioning the copious amounts of pitches he threw before beginning his professional career, including 742 pitches in five games in the Koshien tournament (sourced from Tom Verducci's article on SI.com).

Another point of concern: baseballs. Yes, I'm talking the literal object. Jay Jaffe of SI.com wrote a very interesting article on juiced Japanese baseballs, informing us that in 2011, the NPB had admittedly altered the weight and size of its baseballs from a slightly smaller, lighter version than that of its MLB counterpart. The post-2011 alteration was meant to match the measurements of balls used in the states.

This means that for the first four seasons of his career, Tanaka was throwing that lighter, smaller model before switching to the heavier, larger Big League version in his final three seasons. If you'll recall, Tanaka's workload increased severely in the 2011-2013 campaigns. So not only was he throwing a heavier ball, he was throwing it with uncharted frequency.

I don't care how fractional the actual differences in mass and volume are between the pre-2011 and post-2011 NPB baseballs; when you are tossing it that many times repeatedly, your arm is being taxed. In the long run, I fear that this, like the IP-history, is bound to catch up with Masahiro. On the bright side, maybe the fact that Tanaka was forced to throw the ball with MLB specs will help smooth his initial transition.

Finally, there's the issue of his stuff. You may have heard by now about his untouchable, Koji-Uehara-like splitter. No doubt, it's the pitch that allowed Tanaka to post an unheard of 24-0 record last year in the midst of reeling off a 30-game unbeaten streak (came to an end in Game 6 of the 2013 Japan Series).

While it's great that he has a put-away pitch and a double-play ball to rely on, you need a dynamic fastball to have success in the modern game; either high-octane velocity or late movement. From various scouting reports accessible by a quick internet search, one consistent criticism of Tanaka's arsenal reveals itself: his fastball is flat. You can tell from this YouTube video of highlights (albeit a cursory review) that there is merit to that analysis.

Darvish's fastball cuts (and he can hit 98 on the jug). Kuroda tops out at 90, but he has a devastating two-seam draw on his heater. Really for any pitcher Japanese or otherwise, the clear mark of a successful starting pitcher is a fastball that can be thrown to all quadrants of the strike zone and one that has late movement to dodge the fat part of the bat. The flat fastball issue is equally as unnerving to me as Tanaka's possibly overused right arm.

For all that needling and kvetching, the bottom line remains this: the New York Yankees are obligated by their very nature as the richest franchise in the sport to go after the best players available. Are they grossly overpaying for Tanaka, a guy who probably becomes a quality No. 2 starter in an ideal situation? Yes, but realistically, don't they grossly overpay for everyone? Doesn't every team nowadays (I'm looking at you Seattle)?

Is this contract bound to be another financial burden that the Yankees regret in five years, assuming Masahiro chooses not to opt out? For the reasons given above, I see that as a very likely scenario. But this is the Yankees, and in baseball language 'Yankees' translates to 'win now.' Besides, I'm a fan, and more importantly, I'm a patron of this business. If I'm plunking down a sizable fraction of my income to be entertained by this team, Hank and Hal better be willing to do the same to entertain me.

Though it's probably a moot point now. I'm sure I just cursed my live viewing experience into a season of David Phelps starts.


SIDEBAR

The 2014 Yankees Rotation: As Alluring As It Is Scary

Coming off a remarkable, Cy Young worthy performance in 2013, Hiroki Kuroda may find himself at the back end of the Yankees rotation by the end of the 2014 season
(Photo courtesy Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Talk about a ceiling renovation.

In the context of the short term, the addition of Tanaka has substantially elevated the potential for dominance for the 2014 rotation. With Michael Pineda due back (hopefully) from elbow surgery and Ivan Nova poised to blossom into a top-end-of-the-rotation starter, adding Tanaka to the mix has made the Yankees fleet of arms appear as youthful and potent as ever. You could do much worse than an aging but still workmanlike CC Sabathia and an already-aged yet absurdly effective Hiroki Kuroda as your back end (that Hiroki is like a fine Pinot Grigio, I tell ya).

There is always the potential that the ceiling could collapse on your head though. Nova and CC are very much question marks. Kuroda is now 40 and the league has had another year to decode the mystery of his repertoire. It is unknown at this point if and when Michael Pineda will be game ready.

The worst possible outcome is that Tanaka flops in his rookie season, Pineda gets hurt again or forgets how to pitch after the long lay off, CC and his doughy physique continue to decline into late-30-dom, Nova regresses (prompting Girardi to send him down then up then back down again), and Father Time finally takes one of Hiroki's flat two-seamers and crushes it over the short porch in right field.

Even the persistent pessimist in me can't see all five of these scenarios playing out. By the law of averages, the Yankees are going to get at least 75 wins from this group of five, should the gods of healthy athletes allow. Personally, I'm willing to go slightly higher to 80.

Bold? Perhaps. Chalk it up to the fact that I am genuinely stoked for these guys to get out on the bump this year. And the best part? No Phil Hughes! Had to be said (sorry Phil).

CC and Andy Go Down...Are the Yanks Out?

Within a matter of hours, the Bombers lost both their lefty ace (Sabathia) and their other lefty ace (Pettitte) to injuries.  Are the pinstripes' division-title dreams now in jeopardy?

Just when fans thought that everything was hunky-dory in Yankee Universe, just as they were cranking back the levers on their La-Z-Boys and putting their feet up on their coffee tables, the Baseball Gods administered a sudden and painful shock to the team's starting staff.   Two key southpaws gone within a matter of hours.  When did Wednesdays become so cruel?

Let's travel back to around 11 a.m. Wednesday morning and take a look at the mid-season forecast.  At that point, it was clear skies and smooth sailing for the Yankees' clipper (if you'll allow) on the gentle waves of the 2012 season.  New York owned a 45-28 record, good for a 4-game lead in the AL East.  They were winners in 14 of their last 17 contests, and had put up an MLB-best 24-7 spot since May 22nd (thanks ESPN Research Department for that one).  It was gravy baby, all gravy.

Hours after southpaw ace C.C. Sabathia was placed
on the 15-day DL, Andy Pettitte left Wednesday's game
after a ground ball fractured his left fibula.

Then at about 11:30 a.m., some storm clouds materialized on the doppler radar (yes I am going to continue with this metaphor), as word broke that C.C. Sabathia and his tender groin (...phrasing?) were heading to the 15-day DL.  Certainly not great news, but not devastating injury and therefore not a devastating blow to the franchise.  The seas had roughened but the ship veered little from the course.

Fast-forward to 2:20 p.m.  In the middle of the Yankee Stadium diamond, Andy Pettitte took a sign, kicked, fired, and received a hard ground ball off the left ankle in return.  It was painful to watch.  Andy left the game on the next pitch and, sure enough, x-rays would later reveal a broken fibula.  The Dandy One is placed on the 60-day DL, meaning two months without his dandy antics or his dandy cutter.

Cue the scattered clouds becoming a full on maelstrom and the vessel buckling in the rocky tide.  Cue the feet flying off the coffee and the bodies bolting upright in alarm from their recliners.  Cue the first disturbing twinges of that feeling reporters and analysts love to toss around carelessly in the sports media world: PANIC.

But what if we resisted that convenient urge to panic for say, five minutes?  What if instead we step back, take a deep breath, and share an honest glance at this together before we let ourselves into a state of apoplexy, deal?

Adam Warren will make his major-league
debut for the pinstripes on Friday, replacing
the injured C.C. Sabathia.

For starters, the timing of the injuries is a big positive, especially in Sabathia's case.  Thanks to the upcoming All-Star break, it's likely CC will only miss 2 or 3 starts, assuming there's no setbacks.  My guess is that it's a very light injury, one that management is treating with excessive caution because the timing allows them the luxury of doing so.  Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.  Unfortunately, Andy is going to miss several starts, even with the All-Star weekend. No getting around that.

Recall however that Yankees have one of the better--if not best--bullpens in the business. Actually, it's the strongest aspect of their team. If starters Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, and Hideki Kuroda can "step up" (in the words of manager Joe Girardi) and provide innings over the next few weeks, it will keep the relievers fresh. That reserve of energy could prove big in moments where the pen may need to help out old man Freddie Garcia and/or any minor-league fill-ins, such as Friday's probable Adam Warren.

Speaking of Warren, who is this dude and what has he done to earn the tryout? A quick scroll through his milb.com stats tells us that he has an 11-13 record and a 3.70 ERA in 42 starts with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre...which is to say they tells us nothing. One anonymous talent evaluator claims that Warren "will not overpower hitters with a fastball that rarely strays out of the mid-90s" (thanks nj.com), and a scouting report from 2010 had him throwing a four-seamer, two-seamer, cutter, change, and slider, with a nasty pick-off move to go with it (courtesy riveraveblues.com for that one). Good to see he has variety of movement on the hard stuff, but can he locate? We'll know soon enough.

Any other farm options for the Yankees?  Ramon Ortiz (having the best season) is aging, Delin Betances (having the worst season) has allowed almost a walk per inning, David Phelps (latest victim: see here) is rehabbing his wing, and Manny Banuelos (remember him?) is on the DL and has hardly pitched at all this year.

Personally, I'd rather see them give both Warren and fellow Scrantoner D.J. Mitchell a shot than watch them run old man Freddie out there again (even despite Mitchell's discouraging numbers). Hell, let Boone Logan have a crack at it and see if he can't get through five, like they did in the past with Phil Coke.

But no, they won't do that. They'll live and die with Garcia and when Warren fails to throw a perfect game in his first couple major-league outings, they'll make an early-August play for Francisco Liriano or Brandon McCarthy or the like. The Yankee farm system is currently so thin at pitcher one can hardly blame the front office for seeking outside help.

In the meantime, New York's offensive fixation with the longball will win them some games, even some series, and may mitigate this horrible Wednesday hangover. Be warned though: when all you do as a team is swing for the fences, you're bound to run into some vicious team slumps. We've seen it already in 2012 and we'll see it again. That's when they'll need to rely on the rotation and the bullpen to plug the leak in the vessel. The clipper is going to take on water; the key is to shovel it out as fast or faster than it funnels in (aka stay at or over .500 baseball...for those of you who've lost interest in the metaphor which I suspect is everybody).

The forecast has indeed become stormy, but it's nothing that isn't normal this time of year.  No need to call in the coast guard just yet.  But keep a watchful eye on the horizon Yankee Universe.  It's a long way to that postseason shoreline.

Should the Yankees Be More Fearful of Fister than Verlander?

Why Doug E. Fist's sudden second-half surge could pose more of a problem for the pinstripes than anything else in this series


It’s a safe bet that most Yankee fans rejoiced when Game 1 of the ALDS was suspended due to a furious downpour that somehow blindsided every local weatherman in the tri-state area.

‘Awesome!’ rang the collective consciousness of the Bronx faithful. ‘Now we won’t have to face Justin Verlander twice in this series! Advantage us!’

Instead, the Yankees will battle Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA in the regular season) in tonight’s continuation of the meteorological debacle that was the opening game, a game that was supposed to be Verlander’s to win or lose. The AL Cy Young frontrunner must wait until Monday’s Game 3 for a shot at a postseason ‘W’ (assuming he isn’t able to wrest the gameball away from manager Jim Leyland for Sunday’s Game 2…stay tuned).

Either way, if the series does get to a fifth game, it is likely the deciding match will be entrusted to Fister. Yet somehow, against all my better baseball judgment, I don’t feel any more comfortable about this scenario.

Why? What is it about this Fister guy that gives me this odd one-round-and-done feeling?

Fister spent the first two-thirds of the season pitching in Seattle, and, as with all Mariners, flew largely under the radar. Perhaps ‘soared’ is the better verb for that metaphorical cliché. In 21 outings, Fister submitted 13 “quality starts” and held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less 10 times while pitching to a deceiving 8-11 record.

In August, Doug was dealt to Detroit, a club with at least some semblance of an offense and a bullpen. The extra support made a profound difference: Fister went 8-1 in 10 starts with an outstanding 1.79 ERA. That’s quiet domination embodied.

On the year, Fister had only three, count ‘em three truly bad starts.

Looks like those Bronx boys have their work cut out for them this evening. Sit on the change-up, work the count, and DO NOT underestimate this guy.

Why do I have that awful, awkward, uncomfortable feeling about this? Guess I’ll be praying for more rain.

Sure, Sabathia's 'W' Over the Sox Was Gutsy, Courageous, Crucial, and Ameliorating, BUT...

...Why Yankee Universe Should Celebrate with Cautious Optimism and What Carsten Charles Needs to Do If He Wants to Beat Boston in October

YES Network commentator Ken Singleton probably summed up C.C. Sabathia's victory over the Red Sox most aptly last night when he noted that the southpaw had "definitely earned this one."

And even that might be an understatement.

The 290-lbs. Yankee ace has been known to perspire rather profusely when on the bump, but Sabathia pushed the term "sweating buckets" to its literal limits Tuesday evening. In six innings of work, C.C. threw a season-high 128 pitches (tied for second-most in his career), while enduring 30 batters, 10 hits, and 2 runs en route to his 18th win of the year. And keep in mind that this was a Yankee-Red Sox game, meaning each plate appearance lasted approximately half an hour.

By the time he recorded his 18th out, the man looked like he had spent five days in a sauna in the attic of a greenhouse in a submarine that was submerged in the river Styx.

Hyperbole? Never that.

Not only did C.C. sweat this one out in the physical sense, but in the metaphorical as well. The Sox had a runner(s) on base in all 6 innings, had a runner(s) in scoring position in 4 of the 6, loaded the bases in the 2nd, left 10 runners on base total, and forced the lefty to throw 78 of those 128 pitches from the stretch. Boston bent him and bent him and bent him, but the big man refused to break.

For the Yankees and their fans, this crack-but-don't-crumble narrative was a pleasant departure from the crack-then-crumble-in-miserable-fashion sequence they had come to expect when Sabathia toed the rubber against the Sox. Entering Tuesday, C.C. was a horrid 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA in four starts vs. Boston. Ouch.

A feared and formidable foe against the rest of the league
in 2011, Sabathia had looked mentally and emotionally
overwhelmed by a relentless Red Sox entering Tuesday

And here's what hurt even more than the ugly stats if you're pro-pinstripes: Boston was IN HIS HEAD. They had psyched out the Yankees' best pitcher. The man looked unsinkable against everyone else in the league, but as soon as he saw that old-English style 'B' and the matching red lettering on the caps and jerseys of the opposing team, that same man capsized harder than the Lusitania (too soon?).

Simply put, Sabathia looked scared of the franchise nemesis. It was in his body language on the mound. It was in the lack of confidence behind his pitches. It was in his fear of coming anywhere near the plate against even the weaker hitters in the Sox lineup.  In fact, you could argue that Boston jarred his mental skeleton so badly in his previous outing (6 IP, 9 H, 7 ER) that it carried over into his next three starts, all of which were subpar by the his standards.

So that brings us to the essential question (and inevitable follow-ups) posed by this article: how encouraged should Yankee Universe be by what they saw in Fenway last night from C.C. Sabathia?  Was this a C.C. that showcased a better attitude, approach, and plan against the Sox, or was Boston just having an off day?  Did we see relative continuity or a clear change?  Was it luck?  Was it courage?  Some other vague adjective?

To begin, I'll have to reference the obvious and the trite for a moment: it's a win.  A huge win.  It was a huge team win for a number of reasons (bounce-back from some bad losses, tone-setter for the rest of an important series, AL East standings implications, and so-on, and so-on).

It was also a huge individual win if nothing else for the fact that it was a win.  Just the sight a '1' on the left side of those '4' losses on the stat sheet was most likely a significant psychological boost.  It's a jolt of momentum in his favor.  It's positive energy he can build off of for the next time they meet, whether that's in late September or late October.  It's video that he can look back to and say, 'Okay, this is what worked when I beat these guys, this is what didn't.'

So from a mental and emotional standpoint, it's a definite sigh of relief.  Thus, the Yankee organization/fan base should feel free to bask in this moment of exhalation right along with him.  Go ahead y'all.  In through the nose, out through the mouth.

Enjoy that?  Good, because here comes the however...

HOWEVER, let's keep in mind that Sabathia labored heavily (128 pitches/buckets of sweat) just to get through six innings yesterday.  In addition, there were plenty of hard hit balls off Boston bats that happened to find Yankee leather, and if Adrian Gonzalez didn't have such a gaping blind spot for Sabathia's slider, things might not have worked out in #52's favor.

Now, while his pitch execution certainly played a role in all of that, I think that it was the pitch selection and his overall approach that led him to struggle as much as he did, despite avoiding the big blow.  So although Sabathia's future attitude and pitch execution against the Red Sox may very well improve thanks to this latest pick-me-up victory, I am not convinced that Sabathia's overall strategy showed marked improvement from his previous starts.  To specify, I noticed three things that I believe Sabathia will have to do if he wants to survive the Sox come playoff time.

1) Dude, where is your change-up? The change-up, the change-up, the change-up. I can't say it enough. It's such a key pitch against any team, but especially when facing a killer offense like that of the Sox.  I might be wrong (and according to Tyler Kepner of the Boston Globe, I am--see paragraph #5), but I'm pretty sure C.C. didn't throw a single change-up last night.  It is the culmination of a disturbing trend in which Sabathia (or whoever is calling his pitches) has upped his slider usage while steadily dropping the dosage on his change-up.  I don't know what doctor wrote you that prescription, but that guy's a quack for sure.

C.C. Sabathia's changeup, a staple of his arsenal earlier
in the season has all but disappeared in recent outings

The absence of that devastating fourth pitch gives opponents a massive advantage for many reasons.  For one, it's one less thing to worry about at the dish, one less thing to clutter the batter's mind.  Sabathia's success is stems primarily from his wide array of pitches, and his ability to mix them, work off of them, and throw all of them for strikes.  It keeps hitters guessing, and second-guessing, and third-guessing themselves, because you know that at any given time, you could see any one of those pitches.

In other words, Sabathia's deadly and varied arsenal disrupts the batter's timing and their comfort-level in the box.  The change-up bolsters the arm-action of the fastball which plays off the depth of the slider which complements the velocity of the curveball.  It's a symbiotic relationship, and when you take the changeup out of the equation, you weaken that balance exponentially and allow the hitter to get that much more comfortable.

One last comment on the change-up or lack thereof...think of this from the lens of the hitter.  When C.C. is on and using all his pitches, the thought is this:  If you see white (cowhide) out of the hand and violent arm-action, it's EITHER a fastball OR a change-up.  If you see a spinning red eye out of the hand (seams), it's a breaking ball.  But if you know that C.C. is not using the change-up, you can simplify your pitch-tracking process into cowhide=fastball, seams=breaking ball.  Much, much easier.

I don't know why the change-up has disappeared from Sabathia's repertoire so rapidly.  Could it possibly be motivated by a handful of bad results? (Kelly Shoppach's homer on 8/13 comes to mind.)  Regardless of the cause, I do know that if C.C. doesn't return to it, and return to it soon, he's going to be hard pressed to beat Boston in the playoffs.

2) You must pitch inside.  Again, this applies to facing any team but especially the Sox.  Boston, maybe more than any other team in the league, loves to hang out over the plate and sit on your junk pitches, waiting to pounce on them.  Kevin Gregg recognized this and delivered the appropriate message to Ortiz in the form of three fastballs inside to David Ortiz (sparking one of the greatest SOT calls by any NESN announcer ever).

I'm not saying that C.C. should go to the lengths that Mr. Gregg did.  Then again, maybe sending a message with a high-hard one earlier in the season when he was getting shellacked wouldn't have been the worst thing.  Regardless, what I'm talking about fall under the category of pitching 101.  You throw inside to open up the other half of the plate.  You don't need to put a guy on his back.  Just fling a fastball on the inner half towards the hip/hands every now and again to let the hitters know that it's YOUR plate and you're just letting them borrow it.  Now instead of hanging out over the dish and sitting on your junk, the hitters have that nasty little memory of the 96-mph fastball that nearly clipped their pelvic bone to deter them.

This is nothing new or alien to major league pitchers, yet it took Sabathia nearly four innings Tuesday to finally muster the nerve to throw anything convincing in towards the batter.  That batter happened to be Jacoby Ellsbury, who flinched as a fastball streaked by his hip flexor.  The next pitch was a fastball on the outside corner he hacked meekly at for strike three.  Well whadaya know.

If C.C. and the Sox dance in October, the Yankee ace will
have to get bold and start throwing more pitches inside and
to contact if he wants his team to repeat the success the
enjoyed in 2009.

Ironically, C.C. is usually a guy who isn't afraid to pitch in tight, at least relative to the average modern pitcher.  Against the Sox though, Sabathia rarely makes batters even slightly uncomfortable, and last night was no exception.  This to me signals that a part of him still has mental issues with Boston, and until he mans up and starts challenging these hitters on the inner half, he'll only be making harder for himself.

3) Don't walk the couple of guys in the order that can't hit.  It's one thing when you try and nibble against Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury, but when you load the bases because you're trying to throw perfect pitches to the likes of Darnell McDonald, we've got issues.  This one speaks most loudly to the larger confidence issue C.C. is having.  Why are you messing around with sliders in the dirt and fastball six inches off the edge of the plate when you've got a .192 hitter at the dish?  It simply does not compute.  Rear back and let it fly.  Trust your stuff.  Failing to do so is only going to more trouble when the dudes who can really swing the stick come up again.

With all of that said, let me reiterate that C.C. Sabathia pitched one hell of a courageous game Tuesday night.  But there were too many moments in which that timid pitcher emerged. I still saw an ace who was scared of pitching to contact, scared of coming inside with emphasis, and scared of utilizing a pitch he was so dominant with earlier in the year.

Was every bead of sweat was worth it?  Without question.  Do I have concerns that future beads of sweat expended against the Sox won't be?  You bet your overly-baggy baseball pants I do.

And the Defensive Inning of the Year goes too...

Brent Lillibridge.  Brent.  Stuart.  Lillibridge.

If you’re among the 99.98% of the population that doesn’t know who Brent Lillibridge is or what Brent Lillibridge looks like, here's a photo:



Brent Lillibridge high-fiving teammates
after saving last night's game with two
outstanding catches in right field

Brent Lillibridge was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005 and eventually began his pro career in 2008 with the Atlanta Braves as a backup shortstop.  The Washington native was dealt to the Chicago White Sox in the ‘08-‘09 offseason (in a deal that included Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan incidentally), where he has been used in a super-utility role, filling in at short, second, third, and all three outfield positions.

Last night at Yankee Stadium, Brent Lillibridge entered his 153rd career game as a pinch runner in the eighth inning (his 58th career appearance as a substitute player). Immediately after, Paul Konerko touched up shaky set-up man Rafael Soriano for a go-ahead 2-run homer run.

In the bottom half of the frame, Brent Lillibridge remained in the game as the right fielder. Lillibridge has patrolled right field a total of seven times prior to last night. Six of those instances occurred this season, including the previous night’s game in the Bronx.

It would appear that Brent Lillibridge is astonishingly adept at the art of adaptation…almost as adroit as the author alleges to be at the act of alliteration. Almost.

With one out and two runners aboard in the bottom of the 9th inning, Sergio Santos replaced Matt Thornton and his untamable fastball. The tying run in Derek Jeter stood on second base and the winning run in Mark Teixeira stood on first. Alex Rodriguez loomed over the batter’s box and dug in.

Rodriguez watched as a slider and two 96-mile-an-hour fastballs whizzed by, working his way into a hitter’s count, 2-1. Then on the fourth pitch, A-Rod lashed out at a thigh-high fastball on the outer edge, shooting a laser beam into deep right field. The ball looked like it was tagged for the Merrill Lynch bull logo plastered on the padded wall. Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox looked like they were about to suffer their league-leading 7th blown save.

Enter Brent Lillibridge, stage left. Makes improbable catch with glove hand outstretched and body parallel to aforementioned corporate icon. Queue collective sigh of disappoint (faint smattering of cheers) from crowd and Alex Rodriguez throwing hands on helmet in disbelief.

The scene was over, but the curtain was far from drawn. Santos still needed one more out to secure the save and the 3-2 win.

The next batter was Robinson Cano, the Yankees’ team leader in hits. Cano let a first-pitch slider bounce in the dirt before whipping his bathead through the zone on a low slider out over the plate. He connected solidly and sent the cowhide streaking into right field. The ball looked like it would fall in and roll to the warning track, possibly ending the game. Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox looked like they were about to have the wind knocked out of their metaphorical lungs by the cruelest of metaphorical gut punches.

Enter Brent Lillibridge, stage left. Makes even more improbable diving grab to end game. Plants face in grass and open-palm slaps ground in passionate triumph. Rises heroically with green stains on jersey and cap, then proceeds to celebrate with jubilant teammates. Crowd stunned. Baseball world rocked. Top spot on SportsCenter’s Top 10 solidified. End scene, act, play, theatre as a craft.

How’s that for an ending, Mr. Miller?

Purely in terms of degree of difficulty, I think the catch on A-Rod’s liner was the more impressive of the pair. Lillibridge positioned his body at the perfect angle to the wall, ensuring that he would be able to absorb the impact well enough not to drop the ball or cause harm to his person. And as he calculated his angle of approach, he also had to measure exactly where the ball was going to end up. Turns out all his split-second assessments were spot on; Lillibridge was just close enough to make a tremendous tip-of-the-webbing catch.

But the second snag was the better catch because of the context in which he made it. If that ball gets by him, it would have most likely spelled ‘game over.’ Now, Lillibridge could have played it safe and tried to keep that ball in front of him…but no. This kid was feeling himself, and he put his you-know-whats to the wall and went for glory. Not only did he take an amazingly gutsy risk in going for that ball, but he even finished the play with style, eating some lawn and pounding some grass blades for emphasis. For a non-everyday guy who had played right field a mere seven times in his pro career, that was a truly sensational display of nerve.

So there you have it. Brent Lillibridge. He’s the front runner for Best Defensive Inning of the Year. He’s the brash utility player with the most flair and brass in the game. But above all, plain and simple, Brent Lillibridge is a baseball player.

As I muttered last night (after cursing his name) while shaking my head, what a man.

NOTE: I will do a segment about the pinstripes performance in this series called “The Good, the Bad, the Sad, and the Savory” at the end game four. This is a Yankees blog after all, yeah?

Yanks Winning the Metaphorical Arms Race, Losing the Literal One

First Joba, now Phil...have the Yanks completely lost their ability to develop and maintain young pitching?  And is Banuelos the next victim?

If one were to analogize 20th century baseball to the Cold War, the New York Yankees would undoubtedly be the United States.  They have accrued more championships, more legendary players, more fans, and more financial resources over that time than any other franchise in the sport, just like...America...er, did...back then.  Frankly, there is no Russia in this comparison.  This arms race isn't even close.

However, over the last twenty years or so, the Bronx Bombers have become more representative of the post-Cold War United States.  Just as our country has gone from the great producer of the world's commodities to the great consumer of them, so to have the Yankees gone from the great breeder of heroic players to the great purchaser.  Of course, this transition from an amateur signing/farm-based franchise to a market-based one didn't occur overnight; the Reggie Jacksons, Catfish Hunters, and Dave Winfields helped pave the way to the contemporary era of pinstripe money ball.  But the focus has shifted drastically in recent times, particularly over the past 9 or 10 seasons.



As a result, it appears that the organization has lost its knack for developing and managing young talent.  Either they lose patience and trade their prospects away, or they bury them on the bench behind older players, never allotting them the necessary playing time to polish their skills at the highest level.  Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera (the latter traded away after his best season...oh, how I miss you, Melk Man) stand as the only exceptions to this rule in terms of position players.  In terms of pitchers?  Not a single young arm has come out of the Yankee farm system in the last 10 seasons that has had sustained success with the team.  In this regard, the pinstripes are literally losing baseball's arms race.





This evokes a slew of concerns:  Has the franchise lost its ability to foster and develop young arms?  Will they continue to allow the free agent market and the whims of players like Cliff Lee to dictate the strength of their rotation?  What is it about the Yankees and their strategy when dealing with young pitchers that has created this issue?





Recently DL-ed Phil Hughes was diagnosed with a 'dead arm.'
Is he destined to become the next Joba?



Let's have a look at the most recent episode in this unfolding narrative.  The team recently placed 24-year old starter Phil Hughes on the disabled list with what they are calling a "dead arm."  This coming after three disastrous outings to start the year in which he has posted a 13.93 ERA in just 10.1 innings.

From the hurler's mouth:  "My arm strength's not there.  My arm feels dead."

Despite an 18-8 record, a 4.18 ERA, and an All-Star selection in 2010, Hughes entered the offseason as somewhat of a lingering question mark. He pitched brilliantly through the first half of last year, then lost some of his edge after the break, before finishing with a disappointing ALCS performance against the Rangers. When scouts and coaches noticed a drop in his velocity at the start of spring training, that question mark grew a lot larger. And instead of allowing him to work through this issue, the Yankees decided to limit his preseason work, thinking that the rest would allow Phil to recover his arm strength.

Wait...this story is starting to sound awfully familiar, no?  Let's continue.

The result?  A #2 power pitcher who has completely lost his power and no doubt some of his confidence.  Had Hughes complained of pain or discomfort in his arm, I would have understood the move to truncate his spring outings.  But as far as I know, this wasn't the case, and instead of encouraging Hughes to throw more to regain his zip, management did the opposite:  they babied him.

New York's two biggest pitching prospects in recent memory have both been subjected to heavy innings limits.  In my view, this has had an adverse effect on their health and their careers, and I'm sure I'm not the only member of the Universe that feels this way.

First there was Joba Chamberlain and the infamous "Joba Rules" that significantly limited his usage out of the bullpen in 2007, his rookie year.  In 2008, he was told he would start the year in the bullpen once again, but due to the insistence of owner Hank Steinbrenner, Joba was inserted into the starting rotation in June.  Naturally, the leash was short; Joba averaged a shade over 5.1 IP and 94 pitches over 12 starts before being bounced back to the pen.


Frequent role switches and strict usage limits hurt
 the once unlimited potential of Joba Chamberlain



Flash forward to 2009, the Yankees alerted Joba that he would be a full-fledged starter well before the beginning of the season.  The theory was that with plenty of time to properly prepare for his role in the rotation, Chamberlain would have a better chance of succeeding on the bump.  However, it appeared that the physical and psychological damage had been done.  Joba struggled with his consistency throughout the regular season, ending with a 4.75 ERA through 157.1 IP.  Though he pitched well as a reliever in the playoffs, the drop off in his control, movement, and velocity from his debut campaign was tremendous, if not depressing.

Flash forward once again to 2010.  Chamberlain is now told that he is competing for a spot in the rotation with none other than Phil Hughes.  If he doesn't win it, it's back to the pen.  Let's recap: you burst onto the scene as an unhittable set-up man, then you're converted to a starter mid-season, then you're crammed into the rotation the next season, then you're thrust into a competition for a spot with the other young power righty on the team the season after that.  And all the while as you're being bounced back and forth from season to season, the organization is babying your arm, never allowing you to build the kind of arm and body endurance that you need in order to succeed in this league.  I'm sorry, but you're not going to convince me that this kind of extreme protectionism is benficical long term.

Now it appears that Phil is suffering a similar fate.  Unlike Joba, Hughes began his career as a starter, and the Yankees never seemed to waver in their intention to use him as a starting pitcher long-term.  He was moved to the bullpen in 2009 (a move that admittedly worked to perfection), only becuase the team needed to make room for Chien-Ming Wang.  When he returned to the starter's role last year, the Yankees undoubtedly placed him under stringent pithcing limits, in what was an undivulged version of the "Joba Rules."  Is it true that Phil has been injury prone throughout his young career?  Yes, but none of those injuries involved his arm.  Yet the Yankees babied him, just as they did Chamberlain, and the year after he's pitched his first full seasonas a starter he suddenly has a "dead arm" issue.

How is it that both Joba and Phil suddenly lost their arm strength over the course of a couple seasons, during years that they are supposed to be in their physical prime?  Could it be that the obsession with their pitch counts, innings totals, and all those skipped starts actually weakened their arms, their stamina, and their psychological rhythym, especially in Joba's case?

The most incredible part about all this is that while the Yankees have been overly protective of their young starters, they have been overly liberal when it comes to using effective relievers.  Scott Proctor (83 appearances in '06 and'07), Paul Quantrill (86 in '04), and Tom Gordon (80 in '04, 79 in '05) stand out as sad examples of pitchers who had every last ounce of juice squeezed out of them by former manager Joe Torre and his managerial staff.

This issue was dug up a couple of weeks ago after GM Brian Chasman came under fire for his comments about how it was unfortunate that the Mets burnt out reliever Pedro Feliciano.  When the media cited these relievers as evidence of Yankee hypocrisy, Cashman was quick to push Torre off the subway platform and under the 4-train.  Mysteriously, Torre had no comment about the matter.  Not so media friendly now, are you Uncle Joe?

So Joe Torre burned out relievers, Joe Girardi babies young starters, and the happy-medium lies...where exactly?  Girardi, while he has yet to approach the gross overusage of the Torre regime, seems to be leaining on the JoSoMo trio quite heavily so far this year.  He pulled bonafide ace C.C. Sabathia from a 4-0 game in the seventh inning, despite the two-hit masterpiece he was spinning.

His excuse?  It's early April. It's cold. Besides, Soriano is my eighth inning guy.  Oh boy.  Here we go again.

It should be very interesting to see how Girardi and the franchise handle Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances, the Yankees two top pitching prospects, assuming they don't trade them away.  Will they be babied into injury and mental fragility?  Or will the Yankees actually allow common sense and the natural trajectory of their progression to determine how they incorporate these youngsters?  My money is on a trade for some washed-up former "ace" at the deadline.  Hey, gotta keep pace in that arms race, right?

75,482 Hours of Individualized Hitting Instruction Later...

Even If Granderson Turns It Around, Is He Past the Point of Self-Vindication?




It's certainly no secret in New York that Curtis Granderson has been a disappointment.  He's right up there with the series finale of Lost, the Lebron fiasco, my checking account, unemployment trends, and the arrest of Jetblue flight attendant Steve Slator for biggest letdowns of 2010.  The Yankees gave away their best outfield prospect in years and took on a $25.75 million financial load for the next three seasons--albeit, a microscopic drop in the payroll ocean for the Yanks--in exchange for...10 home runs, 34 RBIs, 10 stolen bases, and a .243 batting average through 114 games?  Ouch.  Mr. Cashman took that one right on the chin, didn't he?  And the fact that Grandy had averaged .278 / 25 / 70 with 19 SBs over his previous three seasons with the Tigers makes the sting of false expectation that much more palpable.  Throw in a broken down Nick Johnson and a horrifically overrated (and overpaid) Chan Ho Park, and you've got yourself one disastrous sequence of off-season transactions.  But as usual, I digress.

Look, Grandy is a human being.  I understand that.  Like most any other average-to-slightly-above-average baseball player, he's going to have an off year or two.  But for that dip to come at this juncture in his career is kind of odd.  He's a 29-year old coming off the best season of his seven-year career.  He's now playing half his games at a smaller, more lefty-friendly ballpark.  He's in the bottom third of a superstar-laden lineup, one that distributes the offensive burden far more evenly than the one he anchored in Detroit.

Maybe the lack of pressure to perform ended up being a negative thing for Grandy.  Maybe because all the factors seemed to tilt in his favor, the center fielder placed more pressure on himself than was otherwise there.  Maybe he's just another guy who can't handle the New York media/atmosphere.  Or maybe, as my friend Mr. Anthony Crupi suggested to me the other night, he saw many more fastballs in his years as a leadoff hitter with Tigers than he has this season as a #7 hitter with New York.  This is an interesting theory, and it appears to make sense, since it is evident that Grandy has problems handling the steady barrage of offspeed pitches he's been subjected in 2010.  Whether the hole in his swing exists because he is unaccustomed to seeing so many breaking balls and change-ups, or because he harbors a natural inability to keep his hands back and use the whole field is tough to measure.  Still, props to you Crup on that astute observation.  He's a single man, ladies.  Take note.

Regardless of the reason (or reasons), one thing is for sure: Curtis isn't getting it done at the dish.  To be sure, he has had his flashes of brilliance.  The game-winning blast off Papelbon in the opening series and the two-homer game against the Royals are just two of his five standout moments.  Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to hold it together for more than a couple of games before plunging back into mediocrity.  He’s been a bust, quite a big one in fact, and no amount of excuse-making can overcome that incontrovertible truth.
Despite his flat-footed start in the Bronx, there is still plenty of season left, and Curtis can indeed wipe his slate clean and set himself for a much better beginning to the 2011 campaign.  And if there’s anyone who can make that happen for him, it’s none other than the Wizard of Wood.  The King of Contact.  The Master of Mashing.  The Guru of Gap-to-Gap Hitting.

I'm referring, of course, to Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.  Mr. Long is quickly etching himself a portrait in the hallowed chambers of pinstripe hagiography (a big tip of the cap to Gordon Edes for that gem of an SAT word).  The things he's accomplished in his first year on the job have almost single-handedly saved the entire season for this team.  He has helped Robinson Cano bridge the gap from good hitter to great hitter (for now anyway), and he has transformed Nick Swisher into a full blown line-drive machine, tapping into potential that nobody, probably not even Swish himself, knew was there.  Ask any Yankee fan which two bats carried the squad through the first half of this season.  If they don’t say Cano and Swisher, ask them what kind of drugs they’re smoking and where you can acquire some.  Then drop me a line, ‘cause I want in on that Kool-aid.

So after four months of weak grounders and lazy fly balls, Granderson finally took a hint and has essentially asked the Sultan of Streaks to revolutionize his approach to hitting, much in the way that he did for Swish.  According to reports from the press, Long has shifted a substantial amount of his coaching focus to number 14, and the endless hours they’ve spent in the cages during the last few days have already paid dividends.  In this evening's matchup with the Royals, Curtis stayed on an offspeed pitch from southpaw Bruce Chen and dinked it into center field, driving in the first run of the contest.  While he didn’t scorch the 0-1 curveball, he kept his hands in the locked and loaded position and hit the ball where it was pitched.  Typically, you’ll see Granderson try and pull that pitch over the wall, resulting in either a routine fly or an inning-ending double play.  This time, however, he displayed a good approach and was rewarded with a good result.
In his second at-bat, Grandy yanked a bullet down the left field line, a hanging slider on the inner-third.  Again, he kept his hands loaded, was quick through the zone, and reacted to the location of the baseball.  You want to pull a pitch like that with authority, and that’s exactly what he did.  He even added a nice running catch in the eighth frame to compliment a solid showing with the stick.  Confidence is a beautiful thing when you’ve got it. 

Granderson's newly reformed stance and swing feature some of the tenets of the Kevin Long approach to hitting.  Pre-pitch, his hands are much quieter and he seems to have opened up his stance a smidge to give himself a better view of the mound.  He's coiling his hands as the pitcher kicks into his windup, a technique that has helped countless major leaguers keep their hands back and get the bat-head to the ball faster (including Hideki Matsui a couple years back).  Essentially, he has adopted and executed all of the mechanics that have been proven effective by Cano and Swisher.

So the question remains, if these adjustments translate into an explosive finish to the 2010 season, will it be enough for Granderson to redeem his image and his value to the Yankee faithful and the organization?  I think it would to some extent, but even if he hits .350 with 10 homers and 30 RBI through the remaining 58 games, fans in this town are hard to convert once you've made them into skeptics.  Pinstripe supporters are not going to be forgetting his slow start anytime soon, I can guarantee you that...unless homeboy does something dramatic in the postseason.  The most direct path to self-vindication and redemption in the eyes of any sports fan is to clutch up in the playoffs.  This is especially true in baseball.  It is extra-especially true of Yankees' baseball.  Keep that chin up, Grandy.  When the air is rife with the crisp smell of dying leaves, so too  hopefully will it resonate with the sound of well-struck cowhide, courtesy of the Grandyman himself.  We all know from his Tiger days that the Grandyman can.  With the guidance of Mr. Long, I'm hoping that 'can' soon becomes 'does'.