CC and Andy Go Down...Are the Yanks Out?

Within a matter of hours, the Bombers lost both their lefty ace (Sabathia) and their other lefty ace (Pettitte) to injuries.  Are the pinstripes' division-title dreams now in jeopardy?

Just when fans thought that everything was hunky-dory in Yankee Universe, just as they were cranking back the levers on their La-Z-Boys and putting their feet up on their coffee tables, the Baseball Gods administered a sudden and painful shock to the team's starting staff.   Two key southpaws gone within a matter of hours.  When did Wednesdays become so cruel?

Let's travel back to around 11 a.m. Wednesday morning and take a look at the mid-season forecast.  At that point, it was clear skies and smooth sailing for the Yankees' clipper (if you'll allow) on the gentle waves of the 2012 season.  New York owned a 45-28 record, good for a 4-game lead in the AL East.  They were winners in 14 of their last 17 contests, and had put up an MLB-best 24-7 spot since May 22nd (thanks ESPN Research Department for that one).  It was gravy baby, all gravy.

Hours after southpaw ace C.C. Sabathia was placed
on the 15-day DL, Andy Pettitte left Wednesday's game
after a ground ball fractured his left fibula.

Then at about 11:30 a.m., some storm clouds materialized on the doppler radar (yes I am going to continue with this metaphor), as word broke that C.C. Sabathia and his tender groin (...phrasing?) were heading to the 15-day DL.  Certainly not great news, but not devastating injury and therefore not a devastating blow to the franchise.  The seas had roughened but the ship veered little from the course.

Fast-forward to 2:20 p.m.  In the middle of the Yankee Stadium diamond, Andy Pettitte took a sign, kicked, fired, and received a hard ground ball off the left ankle in return.  It was painful to watch.  Andy left the game on the next pitch and, sure enough, x-rays would later reveal a broken fibula.  The Dandy One is placed on the 60-day DL, meaning two months without his dandy antics or his dandy cutter.

Cue the scattered clouds becoming a full on maelstrom and the vessel buckling in the rocky tide.  Cue the feet flying off the coffee and the bodies bolting upright in alarm from their recliners.  Cue the first disturbing twinges of that feeling reporters and analysts love to toss around carelessly in the sports media world: PANIC.

But what if we resisted that convenient urge to panic for say, five minutes?  What if instead we step back, take a deep breath, and share an honest glance at this together before we let ourselves into a state of apoplexy, deal?

Adam Warren will make his major-league
debut for the pinstripes on Friday, replacing
the injured C.C. Sabathia.

For starters, the timing of the injuries is a big positive, especially in Sabathia's case.  Thanks to the upcoming All-Star break, it's likely CC will only miss 2 or 3 starts, assuming there's no setbacks.  My guess is that it's a very light injury, one that management is treating with excessive caution because the timing allows them the luxury of doing so.  Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.  Unfortunately, Andy is going to miss several starts, even with the All-Star weekend. No getting around that.

Recall however that Yankees have one of the better--if not best--bullpens in the business. Actually, it's the strongest aspect of their team. If starters Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, and Hideki Kuroda can "step up" (in the words of manager Joe Girardi) and provide innings over the next few weeks, it will keep the relievers fresh. That reserve of energy could prove big in moments where the pen may need to help out old man Freddie Garcia and/or any minor-league fill-ins, such as Friday's probable Adam Warren.

Speaking of Warren, who is this dude and what has he done to earn the tryout? A quick scroll through his milb.com stats tells us that he has an 11-13 record and a 3.70 ERA in 42 starts with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre...which is to say they tells us nothing. One anonymous talent evaluator claims that Warren "will not overpower hitters with a fastball that rarely strays out of the mid-90s" (thanks nj.com), and a scouting report from 2010 had him throwing a four-seamer, two-seamer, cutter, change, and slider, with a nasty pick-off move to go with it (courtesy riveraveblues.com for that one). Good to see he has variety of movement on the hard stuff, but can he locate? We'll know soon enough.

Any other farm options for the Yankees?  Ramon Ortiz (having the best season) is aging, Delin Betances (having the worst season) has allowed almost a walk per inning, David Phelps (latest victim: see here) is rehabbing his wing, and Manny Banuelos (remember him?) is on the DL and has hardly pitched at all this year.

Personally, I'd rather see them give both Warren and fellow Scrantoner D.J. Mitchell a shot than watch them run old man Freddie out there again (even despite Mitchell's discouraging numbers). Hell, let Boone Logan have a crack at it and see if he can't get through five, like they did in the past with Phil Coke.

But no, they won't do that. They'll live and die with Garcia and when Warren fails to throw a perfect game in his first couple major-league outings, they'll make an early-August play for Francisco Liriano or Brandon McCarthy or the like. The Yankee farm system is currently so thin at pitcher one can hardly blame the front office for seeking outside help.

In the meantime, New York's offensive fixation with the longball will win them some games, even some series, and may mitigate this horrible Wednesday hangover. Be warned though: when all you do as a team is swing for the fences, you're bound to run into some vicious team slumps. We've seen it already in 2012 and we'll see it again. That's when they'll need to rely on the rotation and the bullpen to plug the leak in the vessel. The clipper is going to take on water; the key is to shovel it out as fast or faster than it funnels in (aka stay at or over .500 baseball...for those of you who've lost interest in the metaphor which I suspect is everybody).

The forecast has indeed become stormy, but it's nothing that isn't normal this time of year.  No need to call in the coast guard just yet.  But keep a watchful eye on the horizon Yankee Universe.  It's a long way to that postseason shoreline.

Yanks Winning the Metaphorical Arms Race, Losing the Literal One

First Joba, now Phil...have the Yanks completely lost their ability to develop and maintain young pitching?  And is Banuelos the next victim?

If one were to analogize 20th century baseball to the Cold War, the New York Yankees would undoubtedly be the United States.  They have accrued more championships, more legendary players, more fans, and more financial resources over that time than any other franchise in the sport, just like...America...er, did...back then.  Frankly, there is no Russia in this comparison.  This arms race isn't even close.

However, over the last twenty years or so, the Bronx Bombers have become more representative of the post-Cold War United States.  Just as our country has gone from the great producer of the world's commodities to the great consumer of them, so to have the Yankees gone from the great breeder of heroic players to the great purchaser.  Of course, this transition from an amateur signing/farm-based franchise to a market-based one didn't occur overnight; the Reggie Jacksons, Catfish Hunters, and Dave Winfields helped pave the way to the contemporary era of pinstripe money ball.  But the focus has shifted drastically in recent times, particularly over the past 9 or 10 seasons.



As a result, it appears that the organization has lost its knack for developing and managing young talent.  Either they lose patience and trade their prospects away, or they bury them on the bench behind older players, never allotting them the necessary playing time to polish their skills at the highest level.  Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera (the latter traded away after his best season...oh, how I miss you, Melk Man) stand as the only exceptions to this rule in terms of position players.  In terms of pitchers?  Not a single young arm has come out of the Yankee farm system in the last 10 seasons that has had sustained success with the team.  In this regard, the pinstripes are literally losing baseball's arms race.





This evokes a slew of concerns:  Has the franchise lost its ability to foster and develop young arms?  Will they continue to allow the free agent market and the whims of players like Cliff Lee to dictate the strength of their rotation?  What is it about the Yankees and their strategy when dealing with young pitchers that has created this issue?





Recently DL-ed Phil Hughes was diagnosed with a 'dead arm.'
Is he destined to become the next Joba?



Let's have a look at the most recent episode in this unfolding narrative.  The team recently placed 24-year old starter Phil Hughes on the disabled list with what they are calling a "dead arm."  This coming after three disastrous outings to start the year in which he has posted a 13.93 ERA in just 10.1 innings.

From the hurler's mouth:  "My arm strength's not there.  My arm feels dead."

Despite an 18-8 record, a 4.18 ERA, and an All-Star selection in 2010, Hughes entered the offseason as somewhat of a lingering question mark. He pitched brilliantly through the first half of last year, then lost some of his edge after the break, before finishing with a disappointing ALCS performance against the Rangers. When scouts and coaches noticed a drop in his velocity at the start of spring training, that question mark grew a lot larger. And instead of allowing him to work through this issue, the Yankees decided to limit his preseason work, thinking that the rest would allow Phil to recover his arm strength.

Wait...this story is starting to sound awfully familiar, no?  Let's continue.

The result?  A #2 power pitcher who has completely lost his power and no doubt some of his confidence.  Had Hughes complained of pain or discomfort in his arm, I would have understood the move to truncate his spring outings.  But as far as I know, this wasn't the case, and instead of encouraging Hughes to throw more to regain his zip, management did the opposite:  they babied him.

New York's two biggest pitching prospects in recent memory have both been subjected to heavy innings limits.  In my view, this has had an adverse effect on their health and their careers, and I'm sure I'm not the only member of the Universe that feels this way.

First there was Joba Chamberlain and the infamous "Joba Rules" that significantly limited his usage out of the bullpen in 2007, his rookie year.  In 2008, he was told he would start the year in the bullpen once again, but due to the insistence of owner Hank Steinbrenner, Joba was inserted into the starting rotation in June.  Naturally, the leash was short; Joba averaged a shade over 5.1 IP and 94 pitches over 12 starts before being bounced back to the pen.


Frequent role switches and strict usage limits hurt
 the once unlimited potential of Joba Chamberlain



Flash forward to 2009, the Yankees alerted Joba that he would be a full-fledged starter well before the beginning of the season.  The theory was that with plenty of time to properly prepare for his role in the rotation, Chamberlain would have a better chance of succeeding on the bump.  However, it appeared that the physical and psychological damage had been done.  Joba struggled with his consistency throughout the regular season, ending with a 4.75 ERA through 157.1 IP.  Though he pitched well as a reliever in the playoffs, the drop off in his control, movement, and velocity from his debut campaign was tremendous, if not depressing.

Flash forward once again to 2010.  Chamberlain is now told that he is competing for a spot in the rotation with none other than Phil Hughes.  If he doesn't win it, it's back to the pen.  Let's recap: you burst onto the scene as an unhittable set-up man, then you're converted to a starter mid-season, then you're crammed into the rotation the next season, then you're thrust into a competition for a spot with the other young power righty on the team the season after that.  And all the while as you're being bounced back and forth from season to season, the organization is babying your arm, never allowing you to build the kind of arm and body endurance that you need in order to succeed in this league.  I'm sorry, but you're not going to convince me that this kind of extreme protectionism is benficical long term.

Now it appears that Phil is suffering a similar fate.  Unlike Joba, Hughes began his career as a starter, and the Yankees never seemed to waver in their intention to use him as a starting pitcher long-term.  He was moved to the bullpen in 2009 (a move that admittedly worked to perfection), only becuase the team needed to make room for Chien-Ming Wang.  When he returned to the starter's role last year, the Yankees undoubtedly placed him under stringent pithcing limits, in what was an undivulged version of the "Joba Rules."  Is it true that Phil has been injury prone throughout his young career?  Yes, but none of those injuries involved his arm.  Yet the Yankees babied him, just as they did Chamberlain, and the year after he's pitched his first full seasonas a starter he suddenly has a "dead arm" issue.

How is it that both Joba and Phil suddenly lost their arm strength over the course of a couple seasons, during years that they are supposed to be in their physical prime?  Could it be that the obsession with their pitch counts, innings totals, and all those skipped starts actually weakened their arms, their stamina, and their psychological rhythym, especially in Joba's case?

The most incredible part about all this is that while the Yankees have been overly protective of their young starters, they have been overly liberal when it comes to using effective relievers.  Scott Proctor (83 appearances in '06 and'07), Paul Quantrill (86 in '04), and Tom Gordon (80 in '04, 79 in '05) stand out as sad examples of pitchers who had every last ounce of juice squeezed out of them by former manager Joe Torre and his managerial staff.

This issue was dug up a couple of weeks ago after GM Brian Chasman came under fire for his comments about how it was unfortunate that the Mets burnt out reliever Pedro Feliciano.  When the media cited these relievers as evidence of Yankee hypocrisy, Cashman was quick to push Torre off the subway platform and under the 4-train.  Mysteriously, Torre had no comment about the matter.  Not so media friendly now, are you Uncle Joe?

So Joe Torre burned out relievers, Joe Girardi babies young starters, and the happy-medium lies...where exactly?  Girardi, while he has yet to approach the gross overusage of the Torre regime, seems to be leaining on the JoSoMo trio quite heavily so far this year.  He pulled bonafide ace C.C. Sabathia from a 4-0 game in the seventh inning, despite the two-hit masterpiece he was spinning.

His excuse?  It's early April. It's cold. Besides, Soriano is my eighth inning guy.  Oh boy.  Here we go again.

It should be very interesting to see how Girardi and the franchise handle Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances, the Yankees two top pitching prospects, assuming they don't trade them away.  Will they be babied into injury and mental fragility?  Or will the Yankees actually allow common sense and the natural trajectory of their progression to determine how they incorporate these youngsters?  My money is on a trade for some washed-up former "ace" at the deadline.  Hey, gotta keep pace in that arms race, right?